This post in our series explores why decomposition is foundational to structured analysis, how it supports analysts and decision-makers, as well as how to use ARC to run and routinely monitor your decomposition of a critical issue.
Decomposition in intelligence analysis is the process of breaking a complex problem into manageable parts that can be examined independently and in relation to each other. Visualizing these parts (whether as a list, tree, or table) helps individuals and teams better understand how each element contributes to the larger issue. Decomposition is often the underlying step in several analytic methods used in the U.S. Intelligence Community, including scenario planning and indicator monitoring.1
The concept was popularized by CIA analyst Richards J. Heuer in the Psychology of Intelligence Analysis to counter human biases and make the analytic process more transparent and collaborative. Intelligence analysts are trained on decomposition to clarify what matters most, assign responsibility for monitoring, and provide decision-makers with actionable intelligence.2
Decomposition is especially critical in warning intelligence, where timely detection can be the difference between success and failure. For example, analysts assessing whether a terrorist group is planning an attack may break the problem into key indicators including intent (public statements or propaganda), capability (training activities or acquisition of weapons or materials), and opportunity (surveillance of potential targets or movement of operatives). Each indicator is tracked and assessed for changes, and the results are synthesized to inform judgments and warnings.3
While decomposition has been refined by intelligence professionals, it's a valuable technique that extends to any organization or department that operates under uncertain environments. It can help beat the “wait and see” mentality that uncertainty can create, or the over-reliance on the assumptions of a few experts.
Breaking down a complex problem into its components surfaces priorities and
clearer insights that enable better decisions.4,5Using ARC will
simplify the ability to routinely use and incorporate this technique in the
analytic process, providing benefits to both the analyst and decision-maker:
| Helps decision-makers and leaders… | Helps analysts... |
|
Assign ownership by allocating staff or teams to monitor specific drivers or indicators. |
Routinely monitor, update, and refine how an issue is assessed with new information or developments, keeping analysis relevant and timely. |
|
Communicate priorities clearly across the organization through a common framework that aligns everyone from analysts to executives. |
Facilitate more accurate risk assessments and prioritization through a more detailed evaluation of each component. |
|
Identify hidden risks or opportunities that might otherwise be missed. |
Clarify boundaries and scope, ensuring analysis remains focused and actionable. |
ARC takes the core principles of decomposition used in intelligence analysis
and integrates them with AI capabilities. The platform is designed to help you
break down complex questions just as analysts do in the intelligence community
so you can organize, monitor, and refine your analysis as conditions change. In
ARC, a decomposition is built around two main components:
| Drivers |
The major influencing factors that will determine the outcome to your big-picture question. |
| Indicators (sometimes called signals) |
Concrete, observable metrics or events that inform the future direction of the drivers; these discrete indicators can be tracked and forecasted. |
ARC’s breakdown of your strategic question provides a flexible framework for ongoing analysis and decision making. The platform supports real-time collaboration and iterative updates, helping you keep your analysis current and actionable.
Let’s walk through a practical example using ARC decomposition to assess an
issue of strategic importance. Suppose you’re a business analyst at a global
technology company with major operations in Europe. Facing persistent security
concerns related to Russia, uncertainty about transatlantic relations, and the
growing push for EU autonomy, your company must make critical decisions about
its European investments. Here’s how your decomposition in ARC might play out
over time:
| Scope the strategic question |
Start by framing your question: “How will evolving European security dynamics impact our global technology company’s operations and competitiveness over the next five years?” This question sets the stage for focused analysis (see tips on writing a good research question for ARC). |
| Explore scenarios |
Use ARC to map out plausible futures and their likelihoods, which can help to inform the decomposition’s drivers and indicators.6 Alternatively, you can run your decomposition first and let it shape your scenarios, either way is supported in ARC. |
| Develop the initial decomposition |
ARC will decompose your question into major drivers and indicators, and it can factor in specific source materials and news search results. Refine, edit, or add drivers and indicators using ARCbot–ARC’s AI-powered assistant to help you customize the decomposition based on more specific context and expertise. You can also invite colleagues or experts to collaborate directly within ARC on the elements of your decomposition, so that your analysis benefits from diverse perspectives. |
| Continuous monitoring and crowd forecasting |
Monitor drivers and indicators via ARC’s tracking of global search results and source materials, and crowdsource probabilistic forecasts from others in the organization directly within ARC. |
| Iterate and refine |
As new developments occur, revisit the decomposition. You might add a new driver if a major policy shift happens, merge indicators as issues converge, or remove outdated ones. |
| Reporting and decision support |
Provide regular updates to leadership. ARC’s visualizations and draft output templates help you communicate changes, highlight emerging risks, or new monitoring priorities. |
ARC makes it easy to build, refine, and maintain "living" decompositions as part of your analytic workflow. See the support article for instructions, including how to iterate with ARCbot, collaborate, and more.
ARC offers a way to streamline a process that can often take extensive time and effort. Some organizations use workshops to create decompositions with leadership and expert input over the course of one or several days. These decomposition workshops are valuable to explore significant issues as they surface underlying assumptions and align leadership perspectives around a common framework.
Whether you choose to use ARC alongside or in place of a workshop, it will support your ability to routinely maintain the analytic lifecycle of a decomposition—or run multiple decompositions stemming from adjacent issues.
Using ARC’s decomposition features as an ongoing process helps you deliver insights that empower leaders to act confidently, even amid evolving challenges like European security.
This post is from our series on how to use ARC for analysis. Read the introduction to the series and see more posts.
1. Richards J. Heuer Jr., “Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques” (paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Convention, San Francisco, CA, March 26–29, 2008), accessed June 2025: https://pherson.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/03.-Taxonomy-of-Structured-Analytic-Techniques_FINAL.pdf ↩
2. Richards J. Heuer Jr., Psychology of Intelligence Analysis (Washington, D.C.: Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, 1999), accessed June, 2025: https://www.ialeia.org/docs/Psychology_of_Intelligence_Analysis.pdf ↩
3. Sarah Miller Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action, 2nd ed. (Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, 2014) ↩
4. Penn State, The Learner’s Guide to Geospatial Analysis, “The Structured Analytic Techniques ‘Toolbox’”, accessed May 2025: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/sgam/node/155. ↩
5. Heuer, Ibid. ↩
6. U.S. Government, Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis (March 2009), accessed May 2025: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/sgam/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.sgam/files/TradecraftPrimer-apr09.pdf. ↩